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Summer has arrived, and that usually heralds fresh beginnings, with hope for the remaining year ahead. However, many nurses are looking at their futures with a newfound wariness.

We all know nurses who were planning to retire or reduce their work hours and had to change their plans. Part-time nurses are increasing their hours to stabilize their family’s income, and demands for nursing care are declining in some settings as patients delay elective and non-critical procedures. Nurses have watched their retirement accounts lose value, seen family and friends lose jobs, and watched the generation that is just entering the job market struggle to find work.

We hear stories of new graduate nurses not being able to find jobs, and those accounts, combined with the economy’s impact on healthcare, make it tempting to say the nursing shortage is over. Some people even say states over-corrected the shortage by significantly increasing the number of nursing graduates in the past five years. Although it is tempting to agree, I believe the nursing shortage is still there; it merely has gone into a brief hibernation, and will return with a vengeance.

Many of the things that drive the need for nursing care in our communities are still happening. The population is growing and getting older at an unprecedented rate. The 76 million baby boomers, or those born between 1946 and 1964, will start becoming seniors in 2010. This, combined with longer life spans, means the population of Americans older than 65 is increasing in both absolute size and proportion. Added to the quantity of aging adults are the increasing number of people who are living with one or more chronic illnesses requiring additional attention and support. Remember nurses are getting older, also, and many belong to the baby boomer generation that will be leaving the workforce in increasing numbers as they age.

Demand for nursing care is not lessening, but growing. And I fear we are headed right back into a worsening nursing shortage as funding for nursing education programs begins to decrease and student positions are eliminated in reaction to the belief the shortage has ended. We need to be smarter this time and realize we are in a temporary lull in the demand for nurses — a lull that will pass sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, we need to maintain the gains we have made in increasing the capacity of our nursing schools to graduate enough qualified nurses to meet our communities’ future needs. This is a huge challenge, particularly in light of the significant budget deficits facing our state governments. However, to do otherwise surely will result in nursing shortages for years to come.

Let’s choose a different future this time, and ensure that we have enough nurses to meet healthcare needs for decades forward. Let’s choose to continue our investments in nursing now and tomorrow.

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Judith G. Berg, RN, MS, FACHE, is VP of Nursing Communications & Initiatives. To comment, e-mail jberg@gannetthg.com.