Elizabeth Carter
Officials at the Virginia Department of Health Professions Healthcare Workforce Data Center want to issue a word of caution about the results of an RN survey they released in January: Don’t be fooled.
Projections from the survey, conducted among 53,000 RNs renewing their licenses between 2007 and 2008, indicate the shortage of RNs in Virginia in the next 10 years to be between 10,000 and 12,000. That number is down from the projected shortage of 22,600 indicated by the 2007 Health Commission Report, “Roadmap for Virginia’s Health,” but DHP Director Sandra Whitley Ryals issues a word of warning.
“It is important to remember that this [shortage] is not going away,” Ryals said.
She points to the masking effect the current recession has had on the nursing shortage, with some RNs delaying retirement and others re-entering the workforce, decreases in hiring and an increase in nursing graduates during the past four years. Ryals said Virginia had 3,228 nursing graduates in 2008 — an increase of 900 over the number of grads in 2004.
“Just because we think the immediate [shortage] might not be as severe, we certainly hope this depressed economic situation does not continue,” Ryals said. “We know we have an aging population. We have an aging workforce. We have an increased demand for services that naturally goes along with aging. And when you look further at the numbers in the pipeline of the ones who are potentially leaving the profession by sheer age or declining to keep working when the [economy] recovers, we know the demand will dramatically increase.
“So we really cannot ignore it, and that’s part of the message. Part of the intent of the Healthcare Workforce Data Center is to supply our policymakers and the public with the information to help tell the story.”
Elizabeth Carter, DHP Workforce Data Center director, says the impact the recession had on skewing the 2007 nursing shortage projections cannot be overstated.
“No statistician in the world, no matter how wonderful a magician he or she is, could have foreseen what happened,” Carter said.
The length of time the recession lasts also could have an impact on the current RN shortage projections.
According to the report, “Forecasting Nurse Supply and Demand in Virginia: 2008-2028,” released by the DHP Workforce Data Center, Virginia’s supply and demand for RNs is expected to remain more or less in balance through 2015 before a shortage is projected to develop because of a sharp increase in the demand for nursing services. However, the report states, if an economic recovery occurs suddenly, the projected shortage could occur sooner.
Likewise, if the recovery happens more slowly, the shortage would be delayed a few more years.
Tom Clegg is a member of the editorial team at Nursing Spectrum.
Projections from the survey, conducted among 53,000 RNs renewing their licenses between 2007 and 2008, indicate the shortage of RNs in Virginia in the next 10 years to be between 10,000 and 12,000. That number is down from the projected shortage of 22,600 indicated by the 2007 Health Commission Report, “Roadmap for Virginia’s Health,” but DHP Director Sandra Whitley Ryals issues a word of warning.
“It is important to remember that this [shortage] is not going away,” Ryals said.
She points to the masking effect the current recession has had on the nursing shortage, with some RNs delaying retirement and others re-entering the workforce, decreases in hiring and an increase in nursing graduates during the past four years. Ryals said Virginia had 3,228 nursing graduates in 2008 — an increase of 900 over the number of grads in 2004.
“Just because we think the immediate [shortage] might not be as severe, we certainly hope this depressed economic situation does not continue,” Ryals said. “We know we have an aging population. We have an aging workforce. We have an increased demand for services that naturally goes along with aging. And when you look further at the numbers in the pipeline of the ones who are potentially leaving the profession by sheer age or declining to keep working when the [economy] recovers, we know the demand will dramatically increase.
“So we really cannot ignore it, and that’s part of the message. Part of the intent of the Healthcare Workforce Data Center is to supply our policymakers and the public with the information to help tell the story.”
Elizabeth Carter, DHP Workforce Data Center director, says the impact the recession had on skewing the 2007 nursing shortage projections cannot be overstated.
“No statistician in the world, no matter how wonderful a magician he or she is, could have foreseen what happened,” Carter said.
The length of time the recession lasts also could have an impact on the current RN shortage projections.
According to the report, “Forecasting Nurse Supply and Demand in Virginia: 2008-2028,” released by the DHP Workforce Data Center, Virginia’s supply and demand for RNs is expected to remain more or less in balance through 2015 before a shortage is projected to develop because of a sharp increase in the demand for nursing services. However, the report states, if an economic recovery occurs suddenly, the projected shortage could occur sooner.
Likewise, if the recovery happens more slowly, the shortage would be delayed a few more years.
Tom Clegg is a member of the editorial team at Nursing Spectrum.
To comment, e-mail editorDC@nursingspectrum.com or post a comment below.
