The number of young people becoming RNs has grown sharply since 2002, a trend that should ease some of the concern about a looming nursing shortage in the United States, according to a new study.
The number of people ages 23 to 26 — primarily women — who became RNs increased by 62% from 2002 to 2009, approaching numbers not seen since the mid-1980s. Combined with the fact that RNs today tend to enter training at older ages than a generation ago, these new entering cohorts are projected to become the largest group of nurses ever observed, according to researchers from the RAND Corporation, Vanderbilt University and Dartmouth College.
The surge reverses a pattern first observed in the early 1980s of fewer young women entering the nursing profession as other career opportunities expanded. The findings will appear in the December edition of Health Affairs.
"These findings were a real surprise and are a very positive development for the future healthcare workforce in the United States," David Auerbach, PhD, the study's lead author and an economist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization, said in a news release. "Compared to where the nursing supply was just a few years ago, the change is just incredible."
A decade ago, researchers predicted the United States could face a shortage of 400,000 RNs by 2020 because fewer young people were entering the profession. Between 1983 and 1998 the proportion of the RN workforce under age 30 dropped from 30% to 12%, while the average age of working nurses increased from 37 to 42.
Researchers evaluated the latest trends in the nursing workforce by examining information about the employment of RNs from 1973 to 2009 from the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey, two large surveys sponsored by the federal government. Information from the U.S. Census Bureau also was used.
The study found that while the number of RNs age 23 to 26 peaked at more than 190,000 in 1979, it fell to fewer than 110,000 by 1991 and remained low throughout the following decade.
However, since 2002 the number of young RNs has grown at a rate not seen since the 1970s. The number of RNs ages 23 to 26 climbed from 102,000 in 2002 to 165,000 by 2009.
If the number of people entering nursing continues to grow at today's levels, researchers say that by 2030 there will be enough RNs to fully meet the nation's projected needs. If that entry plateaus, however, the workforce will barely keep pace with population growth and likely result in continued shortages.
"We may have reached a tipping point in the nursing shortage in the sense that we now, for the first time in more than a decade of research, are projecting growth in the total size of the registered nurse workforce," said study author Peter Buerhaus, RN, PhD, of the Vanderbilt University School of Nursing. "These early signs are positive, but we need to continually grow the supply of nurses to effectively match the expected growth in demand over the coming years."
The number of people ages 23 to 26 — primarily women — who became RNs increased by 62% from 2002 to 2009, approaching numbers not seen since the mid-1980s. Combined with the fact that RNs today tend to enter training at older ages than a generation ago, these new entering cohorts are projected to become the largest group of nurses ever observed, according to researchers from the RAND Corporation, Vanderbilt University and Dartmouth College.
The surge reverses a pattern first observed in the early 1980s of fewer young women entering the nursing profession as other career opportunities expanded. The findings will appear in the December edition of Health Affairs.
"These findings were a real surprise and are a very positive development for the future healthcare workforce in the United States," David Auerbach, PhD, the study's lead author and an economist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization, said in a news release. "Compared to where the nursing supply was just a few years ago, the change is just incredible."
A decade ago, researchers predicted the United States could face a shortage of 400,000 RNs by 2020 because fewer young people were entering the profession. Between 1983 and 1998 the proportion of the RN workforce under age 30 dropped from 30% to 12%, while the average age of working nurses increased from 37 to 42.
Researchers evaluated the latest trends in the nursing workforce by examining information about the employment of RNs from 1973 to 2009 from the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey, two large surveys sponsored by the federal government. Information from the U.S. Census Bureau also was used.
The study found that while the number of RNs age 23 to 26 peaked at more than 190,000 in 1979, it fell to fewer than 110,000 by 1991 and remained low throughout the following decade.
However, since 2002 the number of young RNs has grown at a rate not seen since the 1970s. The number of RNs ages 23 to 26 climbed from 102,000 in 2002 to 165,000 by 2009.
If the number of people entering nursing continues to grow at today's levels, researchers say that by 2030 there will be enough RNs to fully meet the nation's projected needs. If that entry plateaus, however, the workforce will barely keep pace with population growth and likely result in continued shortages.
"We may have reached a tipping point in the nursing shortage in the sense that we now, for the first time in more than a decade of research, are projecting growth in the total size of the registered nurse workforce," said study author Peter Buerhaus, RN, PhD, of the Vanderbilt University School of Nursing. "These early signs are positive, but we need to continually grow the supply of nurses to effectively match the expected growth in demand over the coming years."
Reasons for the increase
Researchers noted several reasons for the surge in overall interest in nursing. More people are becoming nurses in their late 20s or early 30s, spurred by two-year associate degree programs and accelerated nursing degrees targeted to those in other fields.
In addition, the economic downturn and a continued decline in manufacturing jobs has reduced many of the career opportunities that had attracted young people who otherwise might choose nursing.
Several major initiatives were launched to increase interest in nursing careers. Young people have been drawn to nursing because of aggressive national recruitment efforts, such as the $50 million "Campaign for Nursing's Future" launched by Johnson & Johnson in 2002.
"This campaign was very effective," Buerhaus said. "It really changed the momentum, provided a positive image of nursing and provided information on the opportunities that the profession offers."
Federal funding for nurse workforce development tripled from $80 million in 2001 to $240 million in 2010. Although federal support and state workforce development efforts have been expanding, their continuation is unclear, according to Auerbach and Buerhaus, as is their significance in sustaining enrollment growth is unclear.
Moreover, researchers cautioned the dynamics of the nursing workforce are more complex than sheer numbers. Another issue is whether the workforce will be suited for population needs. Two recent reports from the Institute of Medicine noted a strong need for RNs trained in geriatrics and who can work in ambulatory settings where most patients receive care.
"It's great to have the quantity, but if we don't educate nurses for the positions that the healthcare delivery system requires, then this is a problem that needs to be addressed," Buerhaus said.
Support for the study was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Douglas O. Staiger, PhD, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College, also was an author of the study.
Researchers noted several reasons for the surge in overall interest in nursing. More people are becoming nurses in their late 20s or early 30s, spurred by two-year associate degree programs and accelerated nursing degrees targeted to those in other fields.
In addition, the economic downturn and a continued decline in manufacturing jobs has reduced many of the career opportunities that had attracted young people who otherwise might choose nursing.
Several major initiatives were launched to increase interest in nursing careers. Young people have been drawn to nursing because of aggressive national recruitment efforts, such as the $50 million "Campaign for Nursing's Future" launched by Johnson & Johnson in 2002.
"This campaign was very effective," Buerhaus said. "It really changed the momentum, provided a positive image of nursing and provided information on the opportunities that the profession offers."
Federal funding for nurse workforce development tripled from $80 million in 2001 to $240 million in 2010. Although federal support and state workforce development efforts have been expanding, their continuation is unclear, according to Auerbach and Buerhaus, as is their significance in sustaining enrollment growth is unclear.
Moreover, researchers cautioned the dynamics of the nursing workforce are more complex than sheer numbers. Another issue is whether the workforce will be suited for population needs. Two recent reports from the Institute of Medicine noted a strong need for RNs trained in geriatrics and who can work in ambulatory settings where most patients receive care.
"It's great to have the quantity, but if we don't educate nurses for the positions that the healthcare delivery system requires, then this is a problem that needs to be addressed," Buerhaus said.
Support for the study was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. Douglas O. Staiger, PhD, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College, also was an author of the study.
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