The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has issued new projections regarding insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act after the Supreme Court’s decision to let states opt out of the expanded Medicaid program.
Although the law still will insure up to 30 million new people, according to the report, the total will be fewer than anticipated.
In the report, the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation predicted some states either will not expand their Medicaid program, will not expand the program to the full extent authorized by the ACA or will expand it after the 2014 deadline mandated by the ACA.
Thus, "CBO and JCT now estimate that fewer people will be covered by the Medicaid program [and] more people will obtain health insurance through the newly established exchanges." However, the net effect is that "more people will be uninsured" than anticipated in the law.
According to the new estimate for 2014, 2 million more people will enroll in insurance exchanges, but 6 million fewer people will receive Medicaid and thus 4 million fewer people will have insurance than previously projected. By 2022, with enrollment in the insurance exchanges continuing to increase and with additional states choosing to expand their Medicaid programs, 3 million more people still will be uninsured than previously projected for that year.
According to CBO and JCT’s estimates, "roughly two-thirds of the people previously estimated to become eligible for Medicaid as a result of the ACA will have income too low to qualify for exchange subsidies. … Those who become eligible for subsidies will have to pay a portion of the exchange premium themselves, which will affect their decisions about whether to enroll in the exchanges." A mandate to buy insurance or pay a penalty may apply, but people qualify for an exemption if their coverage costs exceed 8% of their income.
In total, CBO and JCT estimate that the ACA would reduce the number of nonelderly people without health insurance by 14 million in 2014 and 29 million to 30 million in 2022. That would leave about 30 million nonelderly residents uninsured, an increase of 3 million from projections prior to the Supreme Court’s decision. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance is projected to rise from 82% to 92% between 2012 and 2022.
Starting in 2016, ACA provisions will allow 23 million to 25 million additional people to receive coverage through the exchanges and 10 million to 11 million additional people to enroll in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, according to the report. Between 4 million and 6 million fewer people will have coverage through an employer as a result of the ACA, according to the report. That number did not change significantly as a result of the court’s decision.
To read a PDF of the report, including the effects of the Supreme Court’s ruling on federal spending on the law, visit http://1.usa.gov/Qhzgc4.
Although the law still will insure up to 30 million new people, according to the report, the total will be fewer than anticipated.
In the report, the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation predicted some states either will not expand their Medicaid program, will not expand the program to the full extent authorized by the ACA or will expand it after the 2014 deadline mandated by the ACA.
Thus, "CBO and JCT now estimate that fewer people will be covered by the Medicaid program [and] more people will obtain health insurance through the newly established exchanges." However, the net effect is that "more people will be uninsured" than anticipated in the law.
According to the new estimate for 2014, 2 million more people will enroll in insurance exchanges, but 6 million fewer people will receive Medicaid and thus 4 million fewer people will have insurance than previously projected. By 2022, with enrollment in the insurance exchanges continuing to increase and with additional states choosing to expand their Medicaid programs, 3 million more people still will be uninsured than previously projected for that year.
According to CBO and JCT’s estimates, "roughly two-thirds of the people previously estimated to become eligible for Medicaid as a result of the ACA will have income too low to qualify for exchange subsidies. … Those who become eligible for subsidies will have to pay a portion of the exchange premium themselves, which will affect their decisions about whether to enroll in the exchanges." A mandate to buy insurance or pay a penalty may apply, but people qualify for an exemption if their coverage costs exceed 8% of their income.
In total, CBO and JCT estimate that the ACA would reduce the number of nonelderly people without health insurance by 14 million in 2014 and 29 million to 30 million in 2022. That would leave about 30 million nonelderly residents uninsured, an increase of 3 million from projections prior to the Supreme Court’s decision. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance is projected to rise from 82% to 92% between 2012 and 2022.
Starting in 2016, ACA provisions will allow 23 million to 25 million additional people to receive coverage through the exchanges and 10 million to 11 million additional people to enroll in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, according to the report. Between 4 million and 6 million fewer people will have coverage through an employer as a result of the ACA, according to the report. That number did not change significantly as a result of the court’s decision.
To read a PDF of the report, including the effects of the Supreme Court’s ruling on federal spending on the law, visit http://1.usa.gov/Qhzgc4.
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