The number of obese adults and related disease rates and healthcare costs are on pace to increase dramatically in every state in the country over the next 20 years, according to a report.
"F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America’s Future 2012," released by Trust for America’s Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, includes an analysis that forecasts 2030 adult obesity rates in each state and the likely resulting rise in obesity-related disease rates and healthcare costs.
In contrast, the analysis also shows that states could prevent obesity-related diseases and dramatically reduce healthcare costs if they reduced the average body mass index of their residents by 5% by 2030.
"This study shows us two futures for America’s health," Risa Lavizzo-Mourey, MD, president and CEO of RWJF, said in a news release. "At every level of government, we must pursue policies that preserve health, prevent disease and reduce healthcare costs. Nothing less is acceptable."
The analysis, commissioned by TFAH and RWJF and conducted by the National Heart Forum, is based on a peer-reviewed model published in 2011 in The Lancet.
Projected increases in adult obesity rates
By 2030, according to current trajectories of obesity rates, 13 states could have adult obesity rates above 60%, 39 states could have rates above 50% and all 50 states could have rates above 44%.
Mississippi would have the highest obesity rate at 66.7%, with Colorado’s 44.8% the lowest rate. According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, obesity rates in 2011 ranged from a high of 34.9% in Mississippi to a low of 20.7% in Colorado.
Projected increases in disease rates
The number of new cases of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke, hypertension and arthritis could increase 10 times between 2010 and 2020, and double again by 2030.
Obesity could contribute to more than 6 million cases of type 2 diabetes, 5 million cases of coronary heart disease and stroke and more than 400,000 cases of cancer in the next two decades.
More than 25 million Americans have type 2 diabetes, 27 million have chronic heart disease, 68 million have hypertension and 50 million have arthritis. In addition, 795,000 Americans suffer a stroke each year and about one in three deaths from cancer per year (approximately 190,650) are related to obesity, poor nutrition or physical inactivity.
Projected increase in costs for healthcare and lost productivity
By 2030, medical costs associated with treating preventable obesity-related diseases are estimated to increase by $48 billion to $66 billion per year in the United States, and the loss in economic productivity could be between $390 billion and $580 billion annually by 2030. The medical cost of adult obesity in the United States is difficult to calculate, with current estimates ranging from $147 billion to nearly $210 billion per year.
Over the next 20 years, nine states also could see their obesity-related healthcare costs climb by more than 20%, with New Jersey on course to see the biggest increase at 34.5%. Sixteen states and Washington, D.C., could see increases between 15% and 20%.
Lower disease rates and healthcare costs
If states reduce the average BMI of residents by 5% by 2030, every state could help thousands or millions of people avoid obesity-related diseases while saving billions of dollars in healthcare costs.
If BMIs were lowered, the number of Americans who could be spared from developing major obesity-related diseases could range from:
• Type 2 diabetes: 14,389 in Alaska to 796,430 in California.
• Coronary heart disease and stroke: 11,889 in Alaska to 656,970 in California.
• Hypertension: 10,826 in Alaska to 698,431 in California.
• Arthritis: 6,858 in Wyoming to 387,850 in California.
• Obesity-related cancer: 809 in Alaska to 52,769 in California.
Nearly every state could save between 6.5% and 7.9% in healthcare costs, equating to savings ranging from $81.7 billion in California to $1.1 billion in Wyoming. Florida, the only state that would save less than 6.5% in healthcare costs, could save 2.1%, or $34 billion.
"We know a lot more about how to prevent obesity than we did 10 years ago," Jeff Levi, PhD, executive director of Trust for America’s Health, said in a news release. "This report outlines how policies like increasing physical activity time in schools and making fresh fruits and vegetables more affordable can help make healthier choices easier. Small changes can add up to a big difference. Policy changes can help make choices easier for Americans in their daily lives."
Report recommendations
The report includes a series of policy recommendations, including encouraging full use of preventive healthcare services and providing support beyond the physician’s office.
"A number of studies have shown that even when free preventive services are available, a lack of knowledge about their availability precludes many individuals from taking advantage of these services," the authors wrote. "Education campaigns are particularly important to reach lower-income and minority communities that have been traditionally underserved by the healthcare system."
A PDF of the full report, with more details regarding the data and each recommendations, is available at http://healthyamericans.org/assets/files/TFAH2012FasInFat18.pdf.
"F as in Fat: How Obesity Threatens America’s Future 2012," released by Trust for America’s Health and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, includes an analysis that forecasts 2030 adult obesity rates in each state and the likely resulting rise in obesity-related disease rates and healthcare costs.
In contrast, the analysis also shows that states could prevent obesity-related diseases and dramatically reduce healthcare costs if they reduced the average body mass index of their residents by 5% by 2030.
"This study shows us two futures for America’s health," Risa Lavizzo-Mourey, MD, president and CEO of RWJF, said in a news release. "At every level of government, we must pursue policies that preserve health, prevent disease and reduce healthcare costs. Nothing less is acceptable."
The analysis, commissioned by TFAH and RWJF and conducted by the National Heart Forum, is based on a peer-reviewed model published in 2011 in The Lancet.
Projected increases in adult obesity rates
By 2030, according to current trajectories of obesity rates, 13 states could have adult obesity rates above 60%, 39 states could have rates above 50% and all 50 states could have rates above 44%.
Mississippi would have the highest obesity rate at 66.7%, with Colorado’s 44.8% the lowest rate. According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, obesity rates in 2011 ranged from a high of 34.9% in Mississippi to a low of 20.7% in Colorado.
Projected increases in disease rates
The number of new cases of type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and stroke, hypertension and arthritis could increase 10 times between 2010 and 2020, and double again by 2030.
Obesity could contribute to more than 6 million cases of type 2 diabetes, 5 million cases of coronary heart disease and stroke and more than 400,000 cases of cancer in the next two decades.
More than 25 million Americans have type 2 diabetes, 27 million have chronic heart disease, 68 million have hypertension and 50 million have arthritis. In addition, 795,000 Americans suffer a stroke each year and about one in three deaths from cancer per year (approximately 190,650) are related to obesity, poor nutrition or physical inactivity.
Projected increase in costs for healthcare and lost productivity
By 2030, medical costs associated with treating preventable obesity-related diseases are estimated to increase by $48 billion to $66 billion per year in the United States, and the loss in economic productivity could be between $390 billion and $580 billion annually by 2030. The medical cost of adult obesity in the United States is difficult to calculate, with current estimates ranging from $147 billion to nearly $210 billion per year.
Over the next 20 years, nine states also could see their obesity-related healthcare costs climb by more than 20%, with New Jersey on course to see the biggest increase at 34.5%. Sixteen states and Washington, D.C., could see increases between 15% and 20%.
Lower disease rates and healthcare costs
If states reduce the average BMI of residents by 5% by 2030, every state could help thousands or millions of people avoid obesity-related diseases while saving billions of dollars in healthcare costs.
If BMIs were lowered, the number of Americans who could be spared from developing major obesity-related diseases could range from:
• Type 2 diabetes: 14,389 in Alaska to 796,430 in California.
• Coronary heart disease and stroke: 11,889 in Alaska to 656,970 in California.
• Hypertension: 10,826 in Alaska to 698,431 in California.
• Arthritis: 6,858 in Wyoming to 387,850 in California.
• Obesity-related cancer: 809 in Alaska to 52,769 in California.
Nearly every state could save between 6.5% and 7.9% in healthcare costs, equating to savings ranging from $81.7 billion in California to $1.1 billion in Wyoming. Florida, the only state that would save less than 6.5% in healthcare costs, could save 2.1%, or $34 billion.
"We know a lot more about how to prevent obesity than we did 10 years ago," Jeff Levi, PhD, executive director of Trust for America’s Health, said in a news release. "This report outlines how policies like increasing physical activity time in schools and making fresh fruits and vegetables more affordable can help make healthier choices easier. Small changes can add up to a big difference. Policy changes can help make choices easier for Americans in their daily lives."
Report recommendations
The report includes a series of policy recommendations, including encouraging full use of preventive healthcare services and providing support beyond the physician’s office.
"A number of studies have shown that even when free preventive services are available, a lack of knowledge about their availability precludes many individuals from taking advantage of these services," the authors wrote. "Education campaigns are particularly important to reach lower-income and minority communities that have been traditionally underserved by the healthcare system."
A PDF of the full report, with more details regarding the data and each recommendations, is available at http://healthyamericans.org/assets/files/TFAH2012FasInFat18.pdf.
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