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Report: Number of uninsured would rise under Romney

Tuesday October 2, 2012
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About 72 million people nationwide would be uninsured under the healthcare plan of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney if he wins the presidential election, according to a report by the Commonwealth Fund.

Romney has said he would repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with block grants to states for Medicaid and new tax incentives. "While the details of Gov. Romney’s proposals have not been specified, a set of assumptions was made for the report based on similar proposals advanced in the past," the Commonwealth Fund stated in a news release.

The report came out on the eve of the Oct. 3 debate between Obama and Romney. The debate is scheduled to focus on a range of domestic issues divided into six 15-minute segments. Healthcare has been allotted one 15-minute slot.

About 60 million currently are uninsured, according to the report. That number would be projected to drop to 27.1 million with full implementation of the ACA and rise to 72 million under Romney's policies.

The Commonwealth Fund estimated that 17.9 million children under age 19 would be uninsured by 2022 under Romney’s plan, compared with an estimated 6 million under Obama’s plan to implement the ACA.

Under Romney’s plan, 17.7 million middle-income Americans — those with incomes between about $32,000 and $58,000 a year for a family of four — are estimated to be uninsured by 2022. By comparison, 3.3 million middle-income families are estimated to be uninsured under the Affordable Care Act. Among families with incomes under $32,000 a year for a family of four, 38.7 million people are estimated to be uninsured under Romney’s plan, compared with 17.2 million under the Affordable Care Act.

Some of the statistics regarding Obama's plan may not be realistic because the report assumes full implementation of the ACA, with all states agreeing to expand their Medicaid programs largely with federal funding. Several states have indicated an unwillingness or reluctance to go along with that part of the law, citing budgetary concerns.

"There are stark difference between what each candidate has proposed for our healthcare system, and this report shines a light on how each American might be affected, based on their age, their income and where they live," Sara Collins, PhD, the report’s lead author and vice president for affordable health insurance at The Commonwealth Fund, said in the news release.

"The report finds that repealing the Affordable Care Act would significantly increase the number of Americans without health insurance, limiting their ability to get the healthcare they need and exposing them to burdensome medical bills and debt."

The report, "Health Care in the 2012 Presidential Election: How the Obama and Romney Plans Stack Up," analyzes each candidate’s plan to address the U.S. healthcare system’s problems and estimates the resulting number of uninsured by age and income level in every state. The comparison relies on results of microsimulation analysis of the candidates’ plans conducted by economist Jonathan Gruber, who modeled the effects of the Affordable Care Act compared with repeal of the law and replacement with two Romney proposals: providing states with Medicaid block grants and new tax incentives to purchase individual coverage.

Obama has identified near-universal health coverage as a goal, and his plan to continue to implement the Affordable Care Act will reduce the number of uninsured nationwide, according to the analysis. Romney has said he would repeal the Affordable Care Act; change Medicaid to a block grant program; use tax incentives to encourage people to buy individual health plans; and introduce more private plans to Medicare while providing beneficiaries with a specified sum of money, adjusted for health and income, to buy the plan they choose.

The study authors found that young adults and baby boomers would have better access to secure health insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act, with an estimated 7.2 million young adults ages 19 to 29 remaining uninsured in 2022, compared with more than 18.6 million estimated to be uninsured under Romney’s plan. Among older adults ages 50 to 64, 4.9 million are estimated to be uninsured in 2022 under the Affordable Care Act, while nearly 11.8 million would be uninsured under Romney’s plan.

Links to the executive summary and full report, which includes a state-by-state breakdown and analysis of the candidates’ respective plans for Medicare, are available at www.commonwealthfund.org/Publications/Fund-Reports/2012/Oct/Health-Care-in-the-2012-Presidential-Election.aspx.

Editor’s note: Nurse.com does not endorse political candidates.


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